Mountain Guide publishes a high success rate for climbs of Elbrus. But a percentage with no period, no sample and no clear denominator is like a weather forecast that never says which altitude it is for: there is a number, but checking what it means is hard. This page sets out what we count as success, who goes into the calculation, and why the figures for different programmes cannot be casually added together into one attractive number.<\/p>\n
This page publishes the counting rules. The historical register is currently being brought into a single format.<\/strong> Until that check is complete we do not put unverified participant numbers into the tables, and we do not pass off a marketing range as audited statistics for an individual programme.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n For each programme we calculate two different figures. They answer different questions and should not be used in place of one another.<\/p>\n We treat the result for the whole programme as the figure that matters to a buyer. What a person buys is not one night on the slope but acclimatisation, guiding, spare days and the whole route. Count only those who already set off on summit day and the participants who never got that far after the programme began vanish from the statistics.<\/p>\n Success means a participant reaching the goal stated in that particular programme. One definition cannot cover the classic southern route, both summits and a traverse of the whole massif.<\/p>\n If the lead guide changed the order of the summits, the descent option or the final goal for reasons of safety, the register keeps the route that was actually completed. We do not rename a result after the event to produce a nicer percentage.<\/p>\n The figure for the whole programme includes every participant who arrived and started the climbing programme they had paid for. One person appears in the denominator once.<\/p>\n A repeat attempt does not turn one person into two statistical participants. If a participant did not reach the summit on the first attempt but reached it on a spare day, the result of their programme counts as a success.<\/p>\n Where the full data set exists, we also show the success rate of the first attempt, the number of repeat outings and the result once the spare days had been used. That shows what the reserve is worth without inflating the sample.<\/p>\n The commercial rule of a programme and a participant’s statistics are two different things. Under the terms of a trip, a group ascent may count as having taken place if some of the participants reached the summit. In the statistics that does not make everyone else successful.<\/p>\n A snowcat lift that the programme allows does not cancel the fact that the summit was reached, but it is flagged separately in the register. Where there is enough data, the results of participants with and without a snowcat are shown separately.<\/p>\n Oxygen programmes are not mixed in with the ordinary ones. Use of oxygen for emergency or medical reasons outside an oxygen programme is flagged separately too. Otherwise a comparison stops being a comparison, even though it keeps its percent sign.<\/p>\n For every result short of the goal we record a main reason and, where needed, additional ones:<\/p>\n The published format: \u00abAcross the [ period ] seasons the stated goal was reached by [N] of [M] participants who started the programme \u2014 [X]%. Among those who set off on summit day the result was [A] of [B] – [Y]%\u00bb.<\/em><\/p>\n The seven-day and nine-day programmes differ in their acclimatisation schedule, in how densely the load is packed and in how much time is held in reserve. A combined percentage hides precisely the differences that matter to a buyer. For the same reason the northern route, the traverses, both summits, the Cross and the oxygen programme are each counted separately.<\/p>\n The result depends on the period, the weather, the state of the route, the make-up of the groups, the number of spare days, the share of private programmes and the tactics chosen. A company’s range across several years and the figure for one trip in one season are therefore different quantities.<\/p>\n If a new season’s result differs, the earlier number is not overwritten without trace. A new period, a new sample and an update date are added.<\/p>\n The numerical table will be published once the source register has been checked.<\/strong> Until then, a link to this page confirms the methodology but does not stand in for a sample.<\/p>\nIn short: two figures rather than one<\/h2>\n
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What counts as a successful ascent<\/h2>\n
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Who goes into the calculation<\/h2>\n
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How repeat attempts are counted<\/h2>\n
If only part of the group reached the summit<\/h2>\n
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How snowcats and oxygen are recorded<\/h2>\n
Why a summit may not have been reached<\/h2>\n
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What has to stand next to a percentage<\/h2>\n
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Why 7 days and 9 days are counted separately<\/h2>\n
Why the percentage changes<\/h2>\n
Results table<\/h2>\n